Políticos frente a la prensa en Gran Bretaña.

Sin resume

The impact of unloading stresses on post-caldera magma intrusions

Calderas represent morphological depressions several kilometers in diameter, and the unloaded crustal stresses they produce can form rapidly (e.g. Pinatubo, 1990) or slowly (e.g. Hawaii, 2018). Active calderas are known as sites of persistent magma intrusions, and yet the dynamics of their shallow plumbing system is not well constrained. We use scaled laboratory experiments to study how experimental intrusions are created beneath a caldera by injecting dyed water (magma analogue) into the base of an elastic gelatin solid (crust analogue) with a cylindrical cavity in its surface to mimic a caldera-like topography. The evolving dike geometry and stress field were qualitatively determined using polarized light, and digital image correlation allowed the incremental and total strain to be quantified by tracking passive-tracer particles in the gelatin that fluoresced in a thin 2D vertical laser sheet. Our results show that the unloaded stress field from a caldera can cause a divergence of vertical dikes, and leads to circumferential dikes and cone sheets. When the caldera was large the initially vertical dike became arrested, then grew laterally via circumferentially-propagating en echelon segments; these eventually joined to complete a cone sheet that was parallel to, but extended outside and beneath, the large caldera. When the caldera was small, a circumferential dike erupted, producing a short fissure which was outside, but parallel to, the caldera. We suggest that the distinct curved geometry, velocity, strain and stress characteristics of circumferential dikes and cone sheets can be used to interpret the origin and growth of post-caldera magmatism and the likelihood of eruption in caldera systems

Challenging dyke ascent models using novel laboratory experiments: Implications for reinterpreting evidence of magma ascent and volcanism

Volcanic eruptions are fed by plumbing systems that transport magma from its source to the surface, mostly fed by dykes. Here we present laboratory experiments that model dyke ascent to eruption using a tank filled with a crust analogue (gelatine, which is transparent and elastic) that is injected from below by a magma analogue (dyed water). This novel experimental setup allows, for the first time, the simultaneous measurement of fluid flow, sub-surface and surface deformation during dyke ascent. During injection, a penny-shaped fluid-filled crack is formed, intrudes, and traverses the gelatine slab vertically to then erupt at the surface. Polarised light shows the internal stress evolution as the dyke ascends, and an overhead laser scanner measures the surface elevation change in the lead-up to dyke eruption. Fluorescent passive-tracer particles that are illuminated by a laser sheet are monitored, and the intruding fluid's flow dynamics and gelatine's sub-surface strain evolution is measured using particle image velocimetry and digital image correlation, respectively. We identify 4 previously undescribed stages of dyke ascent. Stage 1, early dyke growth: the initial dyke grows from the source, and two fluid jets circulate as the penny-shaped crack is formed. Stage 2, pseudo-steady dyke growth: characterised by the development of a rapidly uprising, central, single pseudo-steady fluid jet, as the dyke grows equally in length and width, and the fluid down-wells at the dyke margin. Sub-surface host strain is localised at the head region and the tail of the dyke is largely static. Stage 3, pre-eruption unsteady dyke growth: an instability in the fluid flow appears as the central fluid jet meanders, the dyke tip accelerates towards the surface and the tail thins. Surface deformation is only detected in the immediate lead-up to eruption and is characterised by an overall topographic increase, with axis-symmetric topographic highs developed above the dyke tip. Stage 4 is the onset of eruption, when fluid flow is projected outwards and focused towards the erupting fissure as the dyke closes. A simultaneous and abrupt decrease in sub-surface strain occurs as the fluid pressure is released. Our results provide a comprehensive physical framework upon which to interpret evidence of dyke ascent in nature, and suggest dyke ascent models need to be re-evaluated to account for coupled intrusive and extrusive processes and improve the recognition of monitoring signals that lead to volcanic eruptions in nature

Data feedback and behavioural change intervention to improve primary care prescribing safety (EFIPPS):multicentre, three arm, cluster randomised controlled trial

Objective: To evaluate the effectiveness of feedback on safety of prescribing compared with moderately enhanced usual care. Design: Three arm, highly pragmatic cluster randomised trial. Setting and participants: 262/278 (94%) primary care practices in three Scottish health boards. Interventions: Practices were randomised to: "usual care," consisting of emailed educational material with support for searching to identify patients (88 practices at baseline, 86 analysed); usual care plus feedback on practice's high risk prescribing sent quarterly on five occasions (87 practices, 86 analysed); or usual care plus the same feedback incorporating a behavioural change component (87 practices, 86 analysed). Main outcome measures: The primary outcome was a patient level composite of six prescribing measures relating to high risk use of antipsychotics, non-steroidal anti-inflammatories, and antiplatelets. Secondary outcomes were the six individual measures. The primary analysis compared high risk prescribing in the two feedback arms against usual care at 15 months. Secondary analyses examined immediate change and change in trend of high risk prescribing associated with implementation of the intervention within each arm. Results: In the primary analysis, high risk prescribing as measured by the primary outcome fell from 6.0% (3332/55 896) to 5.1% (2845/55 872) in the usual care arm, compared with 5.9% (3341/56 194) to 4.6% (2587/56 478) in the feedback only arm (odds ratio 0.88 (95% confidence interval 0.80 to 0.96) compared with usual care; P=0.007) and 6.2% (3634/58 569) to 4.6% (2686/58 582) in the feedback plus behavioural change component arm (0.86 (0.78 to 0.95); P=0.002). In the pre-specified secondary analysis of change in trend within each arm, the usual care educational intervention had no effect on the existing declining trend in high risk prescribing. Both types of feedback were associated with significantly more rapid decline in high risk prescribing after the intervention compared with before. Conclusions: Feedback of prescribing safety data was effective at reducing high risk prescribing. The intervention would be feasible to implement at scale in contexts where electronic health records are in general use

Polls and the political process: the use of opinion polls by political parties and mass media organizations in European post‐communist societies (1990–95)

Opinion polling occupies a significant role within the political process of most liberal-capitalist societies, where it is used by governments, parties and the mass media alike. This paper examines the extent to which polls are used for the same purposes in the post-communist countries of Central and Eastern Europe, and in particular, for bringing political elites and citizens together. It argues that these political elites are more concerned with using opinion polls for gaining competitive advantage over their rivals and for reaffirming their political power, than for devolving political power to citizens and improving the general processes of democratization

The impact of unloading stresses on post-caldera magma intrusions

Calderas represent morphological depressions several kilometers in diameter, and the unloaded crustal stresses they produce can form rapidly (e.g. Pinatubo, 1990) or slowly (e.g. Hawaii, 2018). Active calderas are known as sites of persistent magma intrusions, and yet the dynamics of their shallow plumbing system is not well constrained. We use scaled laboratory experiments to study how experimental intrusions are created beneath a caldera by injecting dyed water (magma analogue) into the base of an elastic gelatin solid (crust analogue) with a cylindrical cavity in its surface to mimic a caldera-like topography. The evolving dike geometry and stress field were qualitatively determined using polarized light, and digital image correlation allowed the incremental and total strain to be quantified by tracking passive-tracer particles in the gelatin that fluoresced in a thin 2D vertical laser sheet. Our results show that the unloaded stress field from a caldera can cause a divergence of vertical dikes, and leads to circumferential dikes and cone sheets. When the caldera was large the initially vertical dike became arrested, then grew laterally via circumferentially-propagating en echelon segments; these eventually joined to complete a cone sheet that was parallel to, but extended outside and beneath, the large caldera. When the caldera was small, a circumferential dike erupted, producing a short fissure which was outside, but parallel to, the caldera. We suggest that the distinct curved geometry, velocity, strain and stress characteristics of circumferential dikes and cone sheets can be used to interpret the origin and growth of post-caldera magmatism and the likelihood of eruption in caldera systems

Hierarchical models for international comparisons:Smoking, Disability, and Social Inequality in 21 European Countries

Background: International comparisons of social inequalities in health outcomes and behaviors are challenging. Due to the level of disaggregation often required, data can be sparse and methods to make adequately powered comparisons are lacking. We aimed to illustrate the value of a hierarchical Bayesian approach that partially pools country-level estimates, reducing the influence of sampling variation and increasing the stability of estimates. We also illustrate a new way of simultaneously displaying the uncertainty of both relative and absolute inequality estimates. Methods: We used the 2014 European Social Survey to estimate smoking prevalence, absolute, and relative inequalities for men and women with and without disabilities in 21 European countries. We simultaneously display smoking prevalence for people without disabilities (x-axis), absolute (y-axis), and relative inequalities (contour lines), capturing the uncertainty of these estimates by plotting a 2-D normal approximation of the posterior distribution from the full probability (Bayesian) analysis. Results: Our study confirms that across Europe smoking prevalence is generally higher for people with disabilities than for those without. Our model shifts more extreme prevalence estimates that are based on fewer observations, toward the European mean. Conclusions: We demonstrate the utility of partial pooling to make adequately powered estimates of inequality, allowing estimates from countries with smaller sample sizes to benefit from the increased precision of the European average. Including uncertainty on our inequality plot provides a useful tool for evaluating both the geographical patterns of variation in, and strength of evidence for, differences in social inequalities in health

A generation apart? Youth and political participation in Britain

Conventional wisdom holds that young people in Britain are alienated from politics, with some claiming that this reflects a wider crisis of legitimacy that should be met by initiatives to increase citizenship. This article addresses these areas, presenting both panel survey and focus group data from first-time voters. It concludes that, contrary to the findings from many predominantly quantitative studies of political participation, young people are interested in political matters, and do support the democratic process. However they feel a sense of anti-climax having voted for the first time, and are critical of those who have been elected to positions of political power. If they are a generation apart, this is less to do with apathy, and more to do with their engaged scepticism about ‘formal’ politics in Britain

The stories we tell: uncanny encounters in Mr Straw’s house

During my first visit to Mr Straw’s House, a National Trust Property in the North of England, I was intrigued by the discrepancies between the narrative framework provided by the National Trust – its exclusions, silences and invisibilities – and the far more complex stories the house seemed to tantalisingly hint at. As a scholar I am drawn to certain sites and affectively engage with them and yet I usually keep silent about my investment which informs not only my interest but also how I read these heritage sites. My aim here is not primarily to interrogate my own investment, but to ask how productive it is, what it enables me to see and to describe and where its limits are. This case study explores a particular tourist attraction from the perspective of storytelling and asks what narratives can be constructed around, and generated through, the spatial-emotional dimensions of this heritage site. I am interested in the hold sites have over people, why and how they provoke imaginative and empathic investment that generates a network of stories and triggers processes of unravelling which have the potential to transform silences and unmetabolised affect into empathy and emotional thought